Showing posts with label Investment Knowledge. Show all posts
Showing posts with label Investment Knowledge. Show all posts

Wednesday, March 7, 2012

How to find proxy statement in SEC files

On this EDGAR page, input company name and form type DEF 14A in the search area.



You will get below result:-



The speech marks ” ” is used just in case the company name has a space in it and the asterisk * is used to display any filing beginning with 10-Q.  By using the asterisk you can search for amended filings that have the code 10-Q/A. If you just did FORM-TYPE=(10-Q OR 10-K), you wouldn’t see any of the amended filings.
For a list of all the other forms, this is the pdf you want.

Here is an excellent article for more detailed info about the SEC search.

Monday, March 5, 2012

When you check a company's inventory...

  • You'll have to evaluate the different kinds of inventory: raw materials, work-in-progress inventory, and finished goods. (Some companies report the first two types as a single category.)
 1) A company ramping up for increased demand may increase raw materials and work-in-progress inventory at a faster rate when it expects robust future growth. As such, we might consider oversized growth in those categories to offer a clue to a brighter future, and a clue that most other investors will miss. We call it "positive inventory divergence."

2) On the other hand, if we see a big increase in finished goods, that often means product isn't moving as well as expected, and it's time to hunker down with the filings and conference calls to find out why.

  •  Compare inventory turnover days among the competitors.

  • Compare the company's inventory growth to sales revenue growth.

Friday, March 2, 2012

Goodwill and other intangible assets

This is extracted from PEP's 10-Q report, and I think this part is very helpful for me to understand goodwill and other intangible assets.


We sell products under a number of brand names, many of which were developed by us. The brand development costs are expensed as incurred. We also purchase brands in acquisitions. In a business combination, the consideration is first assigned to identifiable assets and liabilities, including brands, based on estimated fair values, with any excess recorded as goodwill. Determining fair value requires significant estimates and assumptions based on an evaluation of a number of factors, such as marketplace participants, product life cycles, market share, consumer awareness, brand history and future expansion expectations, amount and timing of future cash flows and the discount rate applied to the cash flows.
We believe that a brand has an indefinite life if it has a history of strong revenue and cash flow performance, and we have the intent and ability to support the brand with marketplace spending for the foreseeable future. If these perpetual brand criteria are not met, brands are amortized over their expected useful lives, which generally range from five to 40 years. Determining the expected life of a brand requires management judgment and is based on an evaluation of a number of factors, including market share, consumer awareness, brand history and future expansion expectations, as well as the macroeconomic environment of the countries in which the brand is sold.
Perpetual brands and goodwill are not amortized and are assessed for impairment at least annually. If the carrying amount of a perpetual brand exceeds its fair value, as determined by its discounted cash flows, an impairment loss is recognized in an amount equal to that excess. Goodwill is evaluated using a two-step impairment test at the reporting unit level. A reporting unit can be a division or business within a division. The first step compares the book value of a reporting unit, including goodwill, with its fair value, as determined by its discounted cash flows. If the book value of a reporting unit exceeds its fair value, we complete the second step to determine the amount of goodwill impairment loss that we should record, if any. In the second step, we determine an implied fair value of the reporting unit’s goodwill by allocating the fair value of the reporting unit to all of the assets and liabilities other than goodwill (including any unrecognized intangible assets). The amount of impairment loss is equal to the excess of the book value of the goodwill over the implied fair value of that goodwill.
Amortizable brands are only evaluated for impairment upon a significant change in the operating or macroeconomic environment. If an evaluation of the undiscounted future cash flows indicates impairment, the asset is written down to its estimated fair value, which is based on its discounted future cash flows.
In connection with our acquisitions of PBG and PAS, we reacquired certain franchise rights which provided PBG and PAS with the exclusive and perpetual rights to manufacture and/or distribute beverages for sale in specified territories. In determining the useful life of these reacquired franchise rights, we considered many factors, including the pre-existing perpetual bottling arrangements, the indefinite period expected for the reacquired rights to contribute to our future cash flows, as well as the lack of any factors that would limit the useful life of the reacquired rights to us, including legal, regulatory, contractual, competitive, economic or other factors. Therefore, certain reacquired franchise rights, as well as perpetual brands and goodwill, are not amortized, but instead are tested for impairment at least annually. Certain reacquired and acquired franchise rights are amortized over the remaining contractual period of the contract in which the right was granted.
On December 7, 2009, we reached an agreement with DPSG to manufacture and distribute Dr Pepper and certain other DPSG products in the territories where they were previously sold by PBG and PAS. Under the terms of the agreement, we made an upfront payment of $900 million to DPSG on February 26, 2010. Based upon the terms of the agreement with DPSG, the amount of the upfront payment was capitalized and is not amortized, but instead is tested for impairment at least annually.
Significant management judgment is necessary to evaluate the impact of operating and macroeconomic changes and to estimate future cash flows. Assumptions used in our impairment evaluations, such as forecasted growth rates and our cost of capital, are based on the best available market information and are consistent with our internal forecasts and operating plans. These assumptions could be adversely impacted by certain of the risks discussed in “Risk Factors” in Item 1A. and “Our Business Risks.”
We did not recognize any impairment charges for goodwill in the years presented. In addition, as of December 31, 2011, we did not have any reporting units that were at risk of failing the first step of the goodwill impairment test. In connection with the merger and integration of WBD in 2011, we recorded a $14 million impairment charge for discontinued brands. We did not recognize any impairment charges for other nonamortizable intangible assets in 2010 and 2009. As of December 31, 2011, we had $31.4 billion of goodwill and other nonamortizable intangible assets, of which approximately 70% related to the acquisitions of PBG, PAS and WBD.

Friday, February 24, 2012

PEG Ratio

The calculation

Price/Earnings to Growth ratio (PEG ratio) = (Price/earnings ratio) / Annual EPS growth

PEG ratio is widely used as an indicator of a stock's potential value.  It is favored by many over the PE ratio because it also accounts for growth.  Similar to the P/E ratio, a lower PEG means that the stock is more undervalued. Most will use 12-month trailing earnings for the bottom part of this formula.

What PEG ratio tells us

PEG ratio results greater than 1 suggest one of the following:-
  • Market expectation of growth is higher than consensus estimates.
  •  Stock is currently overvalued due to heightened demand for shares.

PEG ratio results lower than 1 suggest one of the following:-
  • Market expectation of growth is lower than consensus estimates.
  •  Stock is currently undervalued due to markets underestimating growth.
Best use for PEG


The PEG ratio is best suited to stocks with little or no dividend yield.  Because the PEG ratio doesn't incorporate income received y the investor in its presentation of valuation, the metric may give unfairly inaccurate results for a stock that pays a high dividend.  For companies paying out dividend, the PEG ratio calculation should be revised as following:-

PEG = (P/E) / (Growth estimate + dividend yield)

Thursday, February 23, 2012

Inventory turns and working capital

When analyzing the balance sheet, you want to look at the percentage of current assets inventory represents.  If 70% of a company's current assets are tied up in inventory and the business does not have a relatively low turn rate (less than 30 days), it may be a signal that something is seriously wrong and an inventory write-down is unavoidable.

Inventory turnover = cost of goods sold / average inventory for the period.

Working capital is to calculate the difference between current assets and current liabilities.

Working capital = current assets - current liabilities

Usually speaking, working capital should be positive, and the higher, the better.  However, there is an exception: negative working capital can be a good thing for high turn businesses thanks to the effect of leverage.

Companies that have high inventory turns and do business on a cash basis (such as a grocery store) need very little working capital. These types of businesses raise money every time they open their doors, then turn around and plow that money back into inventory to increase sales. Since cash is generated so quickly, managements can simply stockpile the proceeds from their daily sales for a short period of time if a financial crisis arises. Since cash can be raised so quickly, there is no need to have a large amount of working capital available. 

Account receivable turns

Receivable turns calculation:

Account receivable turns = credit sales (or total sales shown in income statement) / average account receivables

An example of account receivable:-


H.F. Beverages Financial Statement Excerpt
20092008
Accounts Receivable$1,183,363$1,178,423
Credit Sales$15,608,300


average account receivable = (1,183,363+1,178,423)/2 = 1,180,893

account receivable turns = 15,608,300 / 1,180,893 = 13.217

The average number of days that customers pay = 365 / 13.217 = 27.62.

If the collection deadline policy is 30 days term, then the company is doing good because customers pay within 30 days.  Had the answer been greater than 30, you would have been wise to try to find out why there were so many late payments, which could be a sign of trouble. (Keep in mind you will need to read through the company's reports to find out what its collection deadline is.  Not all companies require their customers to pay within 30 days).

Wednesday, February 22, 2012

Asset intensive businesses

Return on Assets as a Measure of Asset Intensity (or How "Good" a Business Is) 
The lower the profit per dollar of assets, the more asset-intensive a business is. The higher the profit per dollar of assets, the less asset-intensive a business is. All things being equal, the more asset-intensive a business, the more money must be reinvested into it to continue generating earnings. This is a bad thing. If a company has a ROA of 20%, it means that the company earned $0.20 for each $1 in assets.
As a general rule, anything below 5% is very asset-heavy (manufacturing, railroads), anything above 20% is asset-light (advertising firms, software companies).
Option 1: Net Profit Margin x Asset Turnover = Return on Assets
Option 2: Net Income ÷ Average Assets for the Period = Return on Assets
As always, you should be interested in non-asset intensive businesses with high returns on equity, little or no debt, operating in non-commodity type industries without fixed cost structures. You should also attempt to look for under valuation in larger rather than smaller companies. In the event of a retail recovery, for example, Wal-Mart is more likely to recover sooner than a small specialty retailer such as Tuesday Morning. The owner of smaller issues may find himself waiting considerably longer for his shares to realize their full value in the market.


In most cases, investors would best be served by avoiding commodity industries entirely unless prices are so low that the respective companies are being given away (even then, the holdings should be sold once a more reasonable valuation has returned. These are not the kind of stocks you want to pass on to your grandchildren).

Return on Equity -- the Dupont Model

Original article is here.

ROE formula is very simple and easy understanding.

ROE = Net Profit / Average shareholder equity for period

However, in the above article, there are three components in the calculation using the traditional DuPont model: the net profit margin, asset turnover, and the equity multiplier.  By examining each input individually, we can discover sources of a company's return on equity and compare it to its competitors.

ROE calculation using DuPont model:

ROE = Net profit margin x Asset turnover x equity multiplier
=(Net income / Revenue) x (Revenue / Assets) x (Assets / Shareholder's equity)

Asset turnover tends to be inversely related to the net profit margin: the higher the net profit margin, the lower the asset turnover.  The result is that the investor can compare companies using different models (low-profit, high-volume vs. high-profit, low-volume) and determine which one is the more attractive business.

The equity multiplier is a measure of financial leverage that allows the investor to see what portion of the return on equity is the result of debt.  If you found a company at a comparable valuation with the same return on equity yet a higher percentage arose from internally-generated sales, not from equity multiplier, it would be more attractive.  We can assume equity multiplier = 1, and calculate the ROE without leverage effect from debt.

Friday, February 17, 2012

Corporate Tax Rate Reference Table


Corporate Income Tax Rates - 1998-2012
Taxable income over
Not over
Tax rate
$0
$50,000
15%
$50,000
$75,000
25%
$100,000
$335,000
39%
$335,000
$10,000,000
34%
$10,000,000
$15,000,000
35%
$15,000,000
$18,333,333
38%
$18,333,333
........
35%