Saturday, June 30, 2012

My goal in the dividend growth account

Basically, my goal is to achieve yield on cost 10% in 10 years.

At the first glance, this goal seems very ambitious.  However, when looking into it a little deeper, I should say that this is a very reasonable and achievable goal.

Firstly, the 10% return is based on cost, the purchase price, not on market price.  If I invest in stocks with solid fundamental financials, I will be very confident to predict an uprising stock market price trend in the long run, reflecting the companies' ongoing growth.  Of course, there are ups and downs in the process, the long-term trend should be upwards.  In the meanwhile, the purchase price is very important.  I should be very patient to wait for a good reasonable entry point, because the purchase price will largely affect my initial yield rate.

Secondly, I only look at those companies that have a consistent dividend growth history in the past 10 years.  With such good record on hand, I believe they will tend to put stakeholders' benefit in a higher priority.  In the future, they will continue to endeavor to increase annual dividend.

Thirdly, here is the guideline to achieve 10% return in 10 years.

In order to achieve this goal, I only look at the gray area, which means the initial yield should be higher than 3%, and the annual dividend growth rate should be 13% or higher.  In this chart, we haven't considered dividend re-investment.  If dividend re-investment is considered, the goal will be achieved faster because of the compounding effect.  Of course, since I plan to put in additional money from my paycheck each month, I'll expect the average yield to cost will be lower than 10% in 10 years.  However, when considering each individual investment, the 10% in 10 years should be guaranteed.

Let's take Walgreen as an example in order to strengthen my analysis:-







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